An introduction to ICM in poker tournaments

ICM in poker is one of the most important concepts in tournament strategy, and most players either ignore it or misunderstand it. The Independent Chip Model is a mathematical framework that converts your chip stack into real dollar equity based on the prize pool. Understanding ICM is what separates players who consistently cash big from those who bust on the bubble or make costly final table mistakes.

If you have ever folded a hand at a final table and wondered whether you made the right call, or shoved with a marginal hand and lost a huge pot you did not need to play, ICM is the framework that answers those questions with math instead of guesswork.

What is ICM in poker?

ICM stands for Independent Chip Model. It is a mathematical formula that calculates how much your tournament chip stack is worth in real money at any given point in a tournament.

Here is the key insight: in a tournament, chips do not have a linear value. If you start with 10,000 chips and double up to 20,000, your equity in the prize pool does not double. The first chip you earn is always worth more than the last chip, because losing all your chips means elimination, while accumulating extra chips gives you diminishing returns against the prize pool.

This is completely different from a cash game, where every chip is worth exactly its face value. In tournaments, ICM captures the gap between chip value and dollar value, and that gap gets wider as you approach the money, reach the bubble, and play the final table.

How ICM works: a simple example

To see ICM in action, consider a simple three-player Sit and Go with the following setup:

Stacks: Player 1 has 5,000 chips (50%), Player 2 has 3,000 chips (30%), Player 3 has 2,000 chips (20%).

Payouts: 1st place gets $700, 2nd place gets $300, 3rd place gets $0.

The total prize pool is $1,000. If chips had linear value, each player’s equity would match their chip percentage exactly. But ICM calculates equity differently, because it factors in each player’s probability of finishing in every payout position. Here is what the math actually looks like:

How ICM changes your strategy

Once you understand that chips have diminishing value, the strategic implications are significant. ICM affects every decision you make at a final table, on the bubble, and anywhere near the money. The pressure is at its absolute peak on the money bubble, where one elimination separates everyone from a guaranteed payout, and remains high through the final table as pay jumps grow.

Big stacks apply pressure

If you are the chip leader, you have the most to gain by playing aggressively. You can put pressure on medium stacks who cannot afford to risk elimination, and you can open wider because the cost of losing a pot is relatively small compared to your total stack. This is especially powerful on the money bubble, where the threat of busting before the payout line makes your opponents fold far more often than they would in a chip EV situation.

Medium stacks play tight

This is where most players make the biggest mistakes. If you are a medium stack near the bubble or at a final table, ICM pressure is bearing down on you hardest. You have a strong chance of finishing in the money, and risking that equity by getting into a big pot against the chip leader is often a disaster. Even hands that look strong in a vacuum become folds when the ICM math says the risk outweighs the reward. On the bubble specifically, the gap between bubbling and cashing is so large that medium stacks should be playing extremely tight unless they have a clear edge.

Short stacks get desperate (correctly)

Counterintuitively, the shortest stack at the table often has the most freedom to shove. Their equity is already low, so the cost of elimination is smaller relative to what they stand to gain by doubling up. On the bubble, short stacks are the ones most likely to bust, and everyone else knows it. In an ideal world, the short stack wants the medium stacks and big stacks to clash and knock each other out, but waiting for that is not a viable strategy with a dwindling stack.

You need to fold more than you think

One of the most surprising things about ICM is just how tight correct play becomes near the bubble and at a final table, even for the chip leader.

Consider this scenario: you are leading a final table with 34 big blinds and you open to 2.1 big blinds from the cutoff. The big blind shoves on you for 10 big blinds. In spots like this one it can often be correct to fold very high up relative to the odds you are getting.

That might mean you are folding hands like AJo, KQo, and A9s as the chip leader against a 10 big blind shove. In a cash game, calling with those hands would be automatic. At a final table, the ICM math, depending on the stacks at the table, might say fold.

Why? Because the big blind’s shoving range at 10 big blinds is extremely tight, and your stack is so valuable that losing almost a third of it is not worth the risk. The pay jump between finishing first and finishing third is massive, and protecting your stack protects your equity in those top payouts.

The five stages where ICM matters most

ICM is not a single concept that applies the same way everywhere. The strength of the ICM effect changes dramatically depending on where you are in the tournament. The pressure peaks on the money bubble, where the difference between bubbling and cashing is the sharpest single equity jump in the entire tournament, and remains high through the final table as pay jumps continue to grow.

How to study ICM: using preflop charts

ICM math is too complex to calculate at the table. Even experienced players cannot run ICM equity calculations in their heads during a hand. That is why the most effective way to improve your ICM game is to study preflop charts that have already solved these scenarios for you.

BBZ Poker’s ICM Preflop Charts provide solver-approved ranges for every situation you will face, with 254 different ICM solutions in total. Here is what they cover:

Final table solutions (3 to 8 players)

The charts include solved ranges for final tables with anywhere from 3 to 8 players remaining. Each solution accounts for your position, your stack size, and the stack sizes of every other player at the table. You get separate solutions for both equal and unequal stack distributions, which means you can study the exact scenario you are likely to face. Stack depths range from 10 big blinds all the way up to 50 big blinds, covering everything from desperate short-stack shoves to deep-stacked chip leader battles.

Money bubble solutions

The bubble is where ICM pressure reaches its absolute maximum, and the charts provide dedicated solutions for bubble play. These ranges account for the fact that one more elimination means everyone left is guaranteed a payout, which creates the single sharpest equity jump in the entire tournament and dramatically changes optimal strategy compared to both pre-bubble and post-bubble play.

In the money solutions (40% of field remaining)

Once you are past the bubble, pay jumps create a different kind of ICM pressure. The charts cover this stage as well, with solutions that factor in the increasing value of survival as the field shrinks toward the final table.

Early and middle stage solutions (83% of field remaining)

Even though ICM has a smaller effect early in a tournament, it is not zero. The charts include solutions for when most of the field is still alive, so you can see exactly how much your ranges should differ from pure chip EV play at each stage.

The GTO Trainer

Studying charts is one thing. Drilling them until the correct plays become automatic is another. The GTO Trainer included with the charts lets you test yourself on any scenario. Pick a final table setup, stack depth, and position, and the trainer will quiz you on the correct action for every hand in the deck. Over time, this builds the pattern recognition you need to make fast, accurate ICM decisions at the table without needing to calculate anything in the moment.

Common ICM mistakes to avoid

Knowing what ICM is and knowing how to apply it are two different things. Here are the most common mistakes players make:

Calling too wide as a medium stack. This is the number one ICM leak. You pick up a decent hand, someone shoves, and you call because the hand “looks good.” But on the bubble or at a final table, the range of hands you should call with is far narrower than you think. Every chip you risk has outsized equity implications, and this is especially true on the bubble where the equity jump between busting and cashing is at its largest.

Not applying enough pressure as the chip leader. If you are the biggest stack and you are playing the same ranges as everyone else, you are leaving money on the table. Your opponents are forced to play tight because of ICM, and you should be exploiting that by opening wider and putting them in uncomfortable spots. This is most profitable on the money bubble, where medium stacks are under the most pressure to fold.

Ignoring stack dynamics. ICM is not just about your own stack. It is about every stack at the table and how they relate to each other. A 20 big blind stack plays very differently depending on whether the other stacks are 15, 25, and 40 big blinds versus 8, 30, and 62 big blinds. You need to account for the full table.

Playing the same way at every stage. Your strategy when 83% of the field is alive should look nothing like your strategy on the money bubble. The bubble is the peak of ICM pressure, and your ranges should be at their tightest there (unless you are the chip leader). Final table play is also heavily influenced by ICM, but the pressure profile is different from the bubble, and your ranges should reflect that.

Start studying ICM today

ICM is not optional if you are serious about tournament poker. Every final table, every bubble, every in-the-money situation is governed by ICM math, and the players who understand it have a massive edge over those who do not.

The good news is that you do not need to become a mathematician. You need access to solved ranges and a system for drilling them until they become automatic. That is exactly what the ICM preflop charts and trainer are built for.

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