The Complete Guide to Bubble Strategy in MTTs

The Complete Guide to Bubble Strategy in Tournament Poker

The money bubble is one of the most important ICM scenarios you will face in MTT poker. Every final table requires surviving the bubble first, which means bubble spots occur far more frequently than final table spots in your career. As a result of the increase in repetitions and exposure, learning ICM principles through the bubble is the most practical way to get better at this critical part of the game.

In this guide, we are going to break down exactly how ICM pressure reshapes your bubble strategy on the money bubble by comparing three critical scenarios: equal stacks under ICM versus chip EV, what changes when you cover your opponents, and what changes when your opponents cover you. Most preflop ranges shown come directly from the BBZ Poker charts.

The Equity Risk Premium: Why Covering Stacks Attack and Covered Stacks Fold

Every range shift you are about to see in this article is driven by a single concept: the equity risk premium. Understanding this concept is the key to understanding why ICM creates asymmetric aggression between different stack sizes on the bubble.

The equity risk premium is essentially an ICM tax that players must pay to continue with their range. If you are new to ICM, our introduction to ICM in poker covers the foundational concepts. On top of the normal pot odds you need to call or defend, equity risk premiums add an additional equity requirement because losing chips in a tournament costs more in real dollar equity than the same chips would be worth in a cash game. The formula is straightforward:

Risk Premium = (ICM Equity needed to continue) – (CEV Equity needed to continue)

If a call requires 33% equity in chip EV but 40% equity under ICM, your risk premium is 7%. That 7% is the extra price you pay just for being in a tournament where elimination matters.

Here is a critical but often overlooked point: the equity risk premium affects everyone, not just the covered stack. Both covering and covered stacks have equity risk premiums. The covering stack is not playing in a vacuum where ICM does not apply to them. However, the covered stack’s risk premium is significantly higher because they face elimination in all-in confrontations, while the covering stack does not.

This relative difference is what creates the asymmetry you will see in the range comparisons below and is the foundation of sound bubble strategy. The covered stack’s higher risk premium forces them to fold more often. The covering stack’s lower risk premium means they can open and defend wider, but not recklessly. Understanding that covering stacks also pay an ICM tax prevents you from treating bubble play like a chip EV free-for-all just because you have the biggest stack.

General Bubble Strategy Principles Before We Look at the Ranges

With the equity risk premium in mind, here are the broad bubble strategy patterns that define bubble play. These patterns show up regardless of stack depth, position, or table configuration.

Tighter value thresholds. Hands that would be clear value 3-bets in a chip EV environment become marginal on the bubble and often call. The threshold for what constitutes a hand strong enough to stack off with shifts upward because equity risk premiums increase the equity requirements for investing your stack.

More 3-betting with blocker heavy ranges. On the bubble, 3-betting becomes more about blockers than raw hand strength. Hands that block your opponent’s continuing range (like Ax and Kx combos) gain value as 3-bet bluffs because they reduce the likelihood of being 4-bet and also duplicate AA/KK/AK (the hands you 3-bet to get it in) as value thresholds narrow.

Tighter cold calls with medium strength hands. Flatting with hands like KJo, QTs, and similar medium strength combos becomes less attractive. The reason for flatting these hands in chip EV is that they are marginal hands that make some money calling but not enough to 3-bet. This is precisely the type of equity that gets compromised with an equity risk premium.

Tighter opens for equal or covered stacks. If you are not the covering stack at the table, your preflop opening range contracts. The covering stacks will be incentivized to apply pressure to your opens via 3-bet, reducing the EV of your marginal opens below zero.

Wider opens for covering stacks. The flip side of tighter opens from equal and covered stacks is that covering stacks can open wider. When your opponents are paying a higher equity risk premium to defend, they fold more often, and your marginal opens become more profitable. The bigger your stack advantage, the more you can exploit this dynamic.

Now let us see exactly how these principles show up in our preflop ranges.

The Baseline: Chip EV with Equal Stacks (No ICM)

To understand how ICM changes your strategy, you first need a clear picture of what optimal preflop play looks like without ICM pressure. This is the chip EV baseline: all stacks are equal at 30bb, and each chip is worth the same amount regardless of how many you have. Think of this as standard early-tournament MTT play before the money bubble approaches.

Button Open: CEV Equal Stacks (47.2% RFI)

In a chip EV environment with equal 30bb stacks, the button opens 47.2% of hands. This is your standard tournament opening range from the button at this stack depth. Our strategy uses a min-raise sizing and finds no reason to use an all-in sizing at this depth.

Button RFI at 30bb in chip EV: 47.2% open, 0% all-in. Source: BBZ Poker Charts.

Big Blind Defense: CEV Equal Stacks

Against the button open in chip EV, the big blind defends very wide. With 68.0% calling frequency and a combined 18.6% 3-bet frequency (split between a standard raise and an all-in sizing), the big blind is folding only 13.3% of hands. This is a loose, aggressive defense that takes advantage of the favorable pot odds and closing the action.

BB defense vs BTN at 30bb in chip EV: 13.3% fold, 68.0% call, 9.1% raise, 9.5% all-in. Source: BBZ Poker Charts.

Notice the 9.5% all-in frequency. In chip EV, the big blind is comfortable jamming nearly 10% of hands against a button open at 30bb. This is a mix of value jams and semi-bluff jams with blocker properties. Keep this number in mind as we move to ICM scenarios, because it changes significantly.

Scenario 1: Equal Stack ICM vs. Chip EV

Now we introduce ICM pressure. Same stack depth (30bb), same equal stacks, but now we are on the money bubble of an MTT. Our bubble strategy accounts for the fact that losing all your chips means busting without a cash, while surviving means locking in a min-cash. This substantially changes the risk-reward calculation for all preflop decisions.

Button Open: Bubble Equal Stacks (45.7% RFI)

With equal stacks on the bubble, the button opens 45.7% of hands. This is slightly tighter than the 47.2% chip EV baseline, a small but meaningful contraction of 1.5 percentage points.

BTN RFI at 30bb on the bubble with equal stacks: 45.7% open, 0% all-in. Source: BBZ Poker Charts.

Why does the button barely tighten when ICM should create more pressure? Because with equal stacks, no one covers anyone else. The equity risk premium is symmetrical: the blinds pay the same ICM tax that the button does. The blinds do fold slightly more than in chip EV due to their positional disadvantage combined with ICM pressure, but the effect is modest.

Big Blind Defense: Bubble Equal Stacks

The big blind defense on the bubble tells a more nuanced story than you might expect. The fold rate increases from 13.3% (CEV) to 19.8% (bubble), which is tighter but not drastically so. The calling frequency actually rises slightly from 68.0% to 70.1%. The real shift is in the 3-betting strategy.

BB defense vs BTN at 30bb on the bubble with equal stacks: 19.8% fold, 70.1% call, 9.7% raise, 0.3% all-in. Source: BBZ Poker Charts.

The all-in frequency collapses from 9.5% in chip EV to just 0.3% on the bubble. Our strategy essentially eliminates the jam from the big blind when stacks are equal on the bubble. One way to think about this is that your 3-bets have leverage or are amplified because of the button’s own risk premium. So non-all-in 3-betting becomes a much more attractive relative option that does not come at the expense of risking your tournament life. The small 3-bet frequency (9.7%) stays nearly identical to the CEV baseline (9.1%), confirming that the big blind can still 3-bet for value and as a bluff.

Scenario 2: Covered Stack ICM vs. Equal Stack ICM

Now we change the stack dynamics. Instead of equal stacks, you are the covered stack. Being covered means that if you get all your chips in and lose, you are eliminated. Your relative equity risk premium is now much higher than the remaining players and your bubble strategy must reflect this.

Button Open: Covered Stack (30.4% RFI)

In this spot the button has 30bb, the SB has 45bb, the BB has 55bb, and the CO is the shortest stack at 13bb. The covered button opens just 30.4% of hands. Compare this to 45.7% with equal stacks on the bubble and 47.2% in chip EV. Being covered cuts your opening range by roughly a third compared to the equal-stack bubble scenario.

BTN RFI at 30bb when covered on the bubble: 30.4% open, 0% all-in. Source: BBZ Poker Charts.

The logic is straightforward. When the blinds cover you, they can call your raises and 3-bet you without risking elimination. You, on the other hand, face the threat of being put to a decision for your tournament life in most pots you enter. Our strategy responds by dramatically tightening your opens as the profitability of the bottom third of your range tanks below zero.

Big Blind Defense: Covered Stack (You Are the 20bb BB)

When you are the covered big blind (20bb) facing a button open from a 55bb stack, the defense looks radically different from any previous scenario. The SB has 35bb and the CO is the shortest stack at 13bb. Your fold rate spikes to 44.5%, your calling frequency drops to 28.4%, and your all-in frequency jumps to 22.8%.

BB defense at 20bb when covered on the bubble: 44.5% fold, 28.4% call, 4.3% raise, 22.8% all-in. Source: BBZ Poker Charts.

The small 3-bet sizing has contracted to 4.3% in part because the big blind is short at 20bb but also because the attractiveness of getting more action and risking a flop is not there for most strong hands. You are primarily either folding, flatting to see a flop cheaply, or putting pressure on the opener by shoving.

The 22.8% jam frequency is a critical number. At 20bb in chips the BB would have had a 13.9% shove vs a button open:

BB defense at 20bb in chip EV for comparison: 13.2% fold, 66.9% call, 6.0% raise, 13.9% all-in. Source: BBZ Poker Charts.

So this 22.8% jam is high even compared to chips. What is going on? When you are the short stack on the bubble, jamming becomes your primary weapon because a covering stack’s open is much wider than it would be in chips and therefore much more vulnerable to all-in shoves. Remember that covering stacks at the table still have ICM incentives to fold marginal hands rather than call your shove given their own equity risk premiums.

Scenario 3: Covering Stack ICM vs. Equal Stack ICM

Now you are on the other side. You are the big stack at the table, and the players in the blinds have shorter stacks. This is where ICM gives you a structural advantage and your bubble strategy opens up considerably. You can put pressure on your opponents because they risk elimination in confrontations with you, while you do not.

Button Open: Covering Stack (62.5% RFI)

In this spot the button has 55bb, the SB has 35bb, the BB has 20bb, and the CO is the shortest stack at 13bb. The covering button opens 62.5% of hands. This is significantly wider than both the equal-stack bubble scenario (45.7%) and the chip EV baseline (47.2%). This is where the covering stack advantage becomes clear on the button.

BTN RFI at 55bb covering shorter stacks on the bubble: 62.5% open, 0% all-in. Source: BBZ Poker Charts.

The covered opponents in the blinds are paying much higher equity risk premiums to defend, so they fold more often and your marginal opens become profitable. You get to attack a table where your opponents cannot fight back effectively.

Big Blind Defense: Covering Stack (You Are the 55bb BB)

When you are the covering big blind with 55bb facing a button open from a 30bb stack, the SB has 45bb and the CO is the shortest stack at 13bb. Your defense widens significantly. You fold only 15.3%, call 68.2%, and 3-bet a combined 16.5% (14.5% raise + 2.0% all-in). This is in spite of the contraction to the button opening range we have seen previously. Even with the button range getting much stronger, the BB refuses to fold in a covering position.

BB defense at 55bb covering the BTN on the bubble: 15.3% fold, 68.2% call, 14.5% raise, 2.0% all-in. Source: BBZ Poker Charts.

This is the widest big blind defense of any bubble scenario we have examined and it is paired with a higher 3-bet frequency than the chip EV baseline despite the button’s much stronger opening range (14.5% raise here vs. 9.1% in CEV). The covering big blind can 3-bet more aggressively here because the opener is a covered stack paying a high equity risk premium. A 3-bet from the covering big blind puts the 30bb button in a very uncomfortable spot: calling risks a large portion of their stack in a bloated pot and will likely result in risking their tournament life after the flop, while 4-betting now definitely risks their tournament life.

The covering stack advantage extends beyond opening wider. You also defend wider, 3-bet more aggressively, and force your opponents into decisions where their equity risk premium makes fighting back very costly.

The Covering SB: Bubble Aggression at Its Peak

One of the clearest demonstrations of covering stack advantage comes from the small blind. For a deeper look at small blind versus big blind dynamics in general, see our complete guide to blind vs blind play. When the small blind covers the big blind on the bubble, the aggression reaches levels that would be unusual in most other contexts.

Small Blind Open: Covering the BB (85.7% RFI)

In this spot the action has folded to the SB with 35bb facing a covered BB with 20bb. The CO is the shortest stack at 13bb. The covering small blind opens a remarkable 85.7% of hands. This is not a typo. We want to be opening most hands from the small blind when we cover the big blind on the bubble.

SB RFI covering the BB on the bubble: 14.3% fold, 12.4% limp, 39.7% raise, 33.6% all-in. Source: BBZ Poker Charts.

Look at the strategy composition. Our strategy uses a three-pronged attack: 39.7% standard raises, 33.6% all-in shoves, and 12.4% limps. Only 14.3% of hands are folded. Jamming roughly one-third of hands puts strong ICM pressure on the covered big blind, who must either risk elimination to call or surrender their blind. An interesting note when observing the small blind shoving range is that the range does not include any truly strong hands at all. It is shoving what is essentially a capped range and is able to get away with this because high equity hands like JTs paired with high equity risk premiums for the opponent make for a devastating scenario for the big blind. The big blind cannot afford to call into a flip when it has a high equity risk premium, and that has the consequence of removing the small blind’s need to shove strength. Shoving high equity medium strength hands when the opponent has a high equity risk premium is more than enough strength already.

This is one of the strongest examples of ICM leverage in standard tournament play and a cornerstone of aggressive bubble strategy. When you cover the big blind from the small blind on the money bubble, you have a wide license to attack.

Putting It All Together: The Complete Bubble Framework

Here is a summary of the preflop opening range frequencies we examined, organized so you can see the full picture at once:

Button RFI by scenario:

• CEV Equal Stacks: 47.2%
• Bubble Equal Stacks: 45.7% (-1.5% vs CEV)
• Bubble Covering Stack: 62.5% (+15.3% vs CEV)
• Bubble Covered Stack: 30.4% (-16.8% vs CEV)

Big Blind fold rate by scenario:

• CEV Equal Stacks: 13.3%
• Bubble Equal Stacks: 19.8%
• Bubble Covering Stack (you cover opener): 15.3%
• Bubble Covered Stack (20bb, opener covers you): 44.5%

Big Blind all-in frequency by scenario:

• CEV Equal Stacks: 9.5%
• Bubble Equal Stacks: 0.3%
• Bubble Covering Stack: 2.0%
• Bubble Covered Stack (20bb): 22.8%

The pattern is clear. ICM does not uniformly tighten everyone. It creates asymmetric pressure based on who covers whom. The covered player tightens considerably. The covering player opens significantly wider than chip EV, especially from the small blind. And equal stacks create a relatively neutral dynamic where the button opens at roughly the same frequency as chip EV, but the blinds defend more cautiously. Understanding this bubble strategy framework is one of the highest-ROI skills in tournament poker.

Common MTT Bubble Strategy Mistakes and How to Fix Them

Mistake 1: Playing the same ranges regardless of stack configuration. The difference between a 30.4% covered button and a 62.5% covering button is substantial. Before each hand on the bubble, identify which players cover you and which you cover.

Mistake 2: Jamming too much with equal stacks from the big blind. The equal-stack big blind should jam just 0.3% of the time. Use smaller 3-bet sizings to apply pressure without committing your stack.

Mistake 3: Not attacking the covered big blind from the small blind. An 85.7% opening range feels absurd, but the math supports it. Open most hands with a mixed strategy of raises and jams.

Mistake 4: Opening too wide when you are covered. Our example suggests just 30.4% from the button when covered. Your higher equity risk premium means many marginal opens are costing you tournament equity. Do not confuse covered stack play with covering stack play, where 62.5% is correct.

How to Study Bubble Spots Effectively

The ranges in this article emphasized 30bb effective depth with particular stack configurations. Your actual bubble spots will vary. Here is how to use this bubble strategy guide as a foundation for broader bubble mastery.

Step 1: Learn the directional shifts. You do not need to memorize specific frequencies. Internalize the direction: covered stacks tighten, covering stacks attack, equal stacks are relatively neutral. These bubble strategy principles hold across most stack depths.

Step 2: Practice with preflop charts. BBZ Poker’s preflop charts include 254 different ICM solutions covering bubbles, final tables, and satellites. Drill the specific frequencies for stack depths you encounter most often.

Step 3: Review your bubble hands. After sessions that include bubble play, review 3 to 5 of your most important preflop decisions. Did you adjust correctly for the stack configuration?

Step 4: Watch live coaching. BBZ Poker’s daily seminars regularly cover bubble play with live examples and range analysis. Seeing a coach walk through decisions in real time solidifies these concepts faster than studying ranges alone.