The Truth About Variance in MTTs: Lessons from BBZ’s Toy Game

Variance in multi-table poker tournaments (MTTs) is a relentless force that can make even the most skilled players question their abilities. It’s the statistical reality behind the exhilarating highs and crushing lows that define tournament poker. Jordan Drummond—known as “BigBluffZinc” or BBZ, the founder and head coach of BBZPoker.com—captures this perfectly with a vivid “toy game” analogy and a candid follow-up quote that demystifies variance. As a former Supernova Elite on PokerStars who built his career from a $7 bankroll, Drummond has coached countless players to navigate variance through his industry-leading training platform. Let’s unpack his insights, explore a useful tool to manage expectations, and learn how to thrive in the chaotic world of MTTs.

Drummond’s Toy Game: A Coin-Flip Microcosm

In a post on Discord, Drummond illustrates variance with a stark example:

“1000 Monkeys Playing a 50-50 coin flip for $100 buyin winner take all. When the game starts your stack is worth $100. If you lose the flip it’s no big deal. $100 out. After winning the first flip there are 500 players left. Now your stack value has doubled. It’s worth $200 in EV… Now lets say you win this flip. Now there are 250 players left and your stack is worth $400… Congratulations you get HU. It’s winner take all. Your stack is now worth $50,000. You are now flipping a coin for $100,000. You lose the flip. FUCK. You just lost a $50k buyin flip… And then FUCK. You lose the flip again… If you lose 5 key flips in a row.. THE LAST FLIP. Your graph goes straight down for 5000 games. And you think it’s rigged because you lost 5 $50,000 flips in a row.”

This toy game—a 1,000-player tournament with $100 buy-ins, where each round is a 50-50 coin flip and the winner takes the $100,000 prize—distills the high-variance nature of MTTs. Drummond, who transitioned from 80-hour work weeks to running a massive staking stable, uses this to show how quickly EV can skyrocket and crash.

Debunking the Myths of Variance

BBZ doesn’t stop at the toy game. In another Discord post, he addresses the paranoia and frustration variance can spark:

“But there’s no magic. And you aren’t cursed. And no one is cheating you to the degree you can’t win. And if you’re still curious go use the tools we all use to learn how it all works. Your 2000 MTT sample is small and might rely on 20 key deep runs. That’s it. And there are all kinds of ways for that to go bad. Poor card distribution, unlucky runouts, setups, etc.”

This quote cuts through the emotional fog of variance. A 2,000-tournament sample—seemingly large—can hinge on just 20 deep runs, and factors like bad card distribution or unlucky runouts can derail even the best players. Drummond’s message is clear: variance isn’t a conspiracy or a curse; it’s a mathematical reality that demands patience and perspective.

What BBZ’s Insights Reveal About Variance

Together, Drummond’s toy game and follow-up quote highlight why MTTs are such a wild ride:

1. Payout Structures Amplify Swings: In the toy game, the winner-take-all format mirrors MTTs’ top-heavy prize pools, where only 10-15% of players cash, and the biggest payouts go to the final table. As Drummond notes, your stack’s EV jumps from $100 to $50,000 heads-up, but a single loss can erase it all, creating massive swings.
2. Key Moments Are Make-or-Break: Each flip in the toy game represents a pivotal MTT moment—an all-in, a cooler, or a big bluff. While skill (a focus of Drummond’s BBZ Fundamentals Collection) gives you an edge, these spots can feel like coin flips. Losing a late-stage flip, as Drummond puts it, is like losing a “$50,000 buyin flip.”
3. Sample Size Misleads: Drummond’s point about a 2,000-MTT sample being “small” is eye-opening. With only 20 deep runs driving your results, variance can dominate for thousands of games. Losing five “$50,000 flips” in a row, as in the toy game, can tank your graph for 5,000 tournaments, even if your EV is positive.
4. Psychological Pitfalls: The toy game’s “FUCK” moments and the urge to think it’s “rigged” capture the emotional toll of variance. Drummond’s reassurance—“there’s no magic… you aren’t cursed”—reminds players to stay rational. His coaching at BBZ Poker, praised on forums like Reddit for its clarity, emphasizes mental resilience.

A Tool to Manage Variance Expectations

To better understand and prepare for these swings, players can use tools like the Tournament Variance Calculator from PrimeDope. This free online tool lets you input variables like buy-in, field size, and payout structure to estimate your expected variance and the likelihood of downswings or upswings over a given sample. By visualizing how even a 2,000-MTT sample can be skewed by “20 key deep runs,” as Drummond notes, it helps set realistic expectations and reinforces the need for a long-term approach.

Strategies to Conquer Variance, BBZ-Style

Drawing from Drummond’s expertise, here’s how to tame the variance he describes:

• Bankroll Discipline: The swings in Drummond’s toy game demand a robust bankroll—typically 100-200 buy-ins for your average stake, more for large-field MTTs. Drummond’s “Moving Up with BBZ” bundle helps players spot leaks to protect their funds.
• Grind More Volume: As Drummond’s 2,000-MTT sample warning suggests, you need thousands of tournaments to smooth out variance. More volume means more chances for your edge to shine, a principle embedded in BBZ Poker’s training videos.
• Focus on Process: Variance can make losses feel personal, but Drummond urges players to use “the tools we all use” (like solvers, trackers, or the Tournament Variance Calculator) to focus on +EV decisions, not results. His coaching resources teach this systematically.
• Build Mental Toughness: Losing five “$50,000 flips” or facing “unlucky runouts” can crush your spirit. Mindfulness, study, and BBZ Poker’s Discord community—part of BBZ’s collaborative ethos—help players stay grounded.
• Diversify Formats: To counter variance, mix in smaller-field MTTs or cash games (Drummond’s own low-variance roots) for steadier returns alongside big-field grindfests.

Variance: A Feature, Not a Flaw

Drummond’s toy game and candid advice—“there’s no magic… no one is cheating you”—reveal that variance is an inherent part of MTTs. The skewed payouts and high-stakes moments create swings that can make your graph “go straight down for 5000 games,” but that’s not a rigged system—it’s just math. Skilled players, guided by resources like BBZ Poker’s video courses, live coaching, and tools like the Tournament Variance Calculator, win by making +EV decisions over the long haul.

So, when you bust on the bubble or lose a massive pot deep in an MTT, remember Drummond’s monkeys flipping coins and his reminder that your 2,000-tournament sample is just a snapshot. Keep grinding, study with tools like those at BBZPoker.com, and trust your edge. Variance may sting, but with discipline and resilience, you’ll outlast the swings.